All right, final 4fo4.info WAG Olympic Team Predictions, post-Olympic qualifying edition. After winn
All right, final 4fo4.info WAG Olympic Team Predictions, post-Olympic qualifying edition. After winning by almost 10 points, the U.S. move up to a 94% chance at gold. China and Russia’s podium chances fall with how close they were to Great Britain and Brazil. An informal Twitter poll says that everyone else is a little more confident in Brazil for bronze than these numbers, though they did move up to 18% which is not nothing.I’m going to do a whole post-mortem post about how all this did & how I’d look to improve it after we get through the entire Olympics, but for now: I’d say the predictions for qualifiers went pretty well! It was 7/8 in terms of its most likely qualifiers making it. Canada’s 73% might have been high, though at the same time they had a pretty disastrous beam rotation and didn’t quite rally anywhere else and still missed out by only a tenth. My biggest point of concern with the model was how down it was on Italy and Japan relative to my own read of the situation, and it turned out to be more correct than my gut. So I’d call that a win, since that’s exactly what it’s supposed to do.(The average simulated scores were of course not quite right because who could have predicted that bars judging. But in terms of how far the teams are from each other it did decently – it was too hot on China and not hot enough on the US vs everyone else, but elsewhere the gaps are about right. Though the model had the gap between the U.S. and Russia was 8.73, which is within spitting distance of the 9.96 between the U.S. and the rest of the field in qualification.) -- source link
#rio 2016